216 - Scientific Evidence
The nature of scientific evidence is to grow slowly over extended periods of time, and the complimentary nature of human cognitive biases is to ignore very gradual changes until they reach a critical point and the discrepancy demands immediate attention.
Sadly, this is also often why quotes like "A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.", from Max Planck often ring true.
You can also observe something similar in the patterns of the Dunning-Kruger Effect and the Gartner Hype Cycle, as critical points are reached and frequently sharp course corrections are made. For population dynamics, the sharpness of those points is smoothed by a cascade of change washing over the population. Once the upper and lower bounds are established for a given domain then the population usually takes a more moderate path between them.
These dynamics of ignoring slow major changes until they reach a critical point also play heavily into the “Fear of Missing Out” (FOMO) and other herd-mentality behaviors where higher cognition is just along for the ride, that often being a ride under the bus rather than inside it.
This dominantly reactionary mode does help to prevent humans from burning up all of their higher cognition within the first couple of hours of waking up, but it also systematically leads people astray, and often into the hands of malevolent and adversarial parties.
FOMO was a term I first heard in common usage when Cryptocurrency was first growing in popularity, and it was malevolently invoked by bad actors to create a false sense of urgency to drive herd behaviors, extracting funds from the gullible many. That same group of bad actors migrated into AI, and some have joked that they’re now migrating to quantum computing and neuromorphic hardware, but their toolbox of tactics remains largely unchanged each time, and people continue to fall for it.
Humans can partially overcome both the natural tendency to ignore slow changes and the adversarially invoked false sense of urgency by making a point to routinely check if a set of assumptions still holds true for any given challenge or domain. This is enhanced through collective intelligence if performed by a group with diverse perspectives that they feel free to voice.
Another more complete method may well become the preferred option after my team’s technology is commercially deployed, but for the time being people are anything but helpless. The price to do better for now remains higher cognition, and when applied to prevention (proactive) rather than treatment (reactive) a great deal more can be accomplished given the same resources.
