082 - Curiosity
I remember when I first heard the phrase "Explain it to me like I'm 5" (ELI5) and thought how very sad it was that anyone would say that rather than learn the material. While I've generally been very accurate at prediction, at that time I didn't expect ELI5 to become a normal thing, nor did I expect that it would be but one step in a progression.
What I've been noticing this year has moved beyond ELI5 and into "I'll behave like I'm 5" (EBLI5). For example, if you explain new technology to people then all of them invariably want to play with it, and if they can't play with it at that moment then the reasons why they can't don't really matter to them. They give an exaggerated emotional response, pout, and promptly shift their attention to the nearest shiny object.
This behavior is coated in the guise of other learned contexts. It may wear the clothing of a dozen different flavors of skepticism, reciting jargon, but scratch the surface and you see an emotional response paired with a set of cognitive biases producing a post hoc justification for pouting and subsequent novelty-seeking.
This problem is made considerably worse by the Dunning-Kruger Effect, paired with increasing complexity from interdisciplinary activity. As fields become increasingly interdisciplinary over time then the actual domain of expertise for each individual tends to shrink, though the individuals rarely seem to notice this. As their expertise shrinks and they wander into once-familiar and domain-adjacent territory then they retain the self-image of being an expert, even when they have none. This results in the high confidence of the Dunning-Kruger Effect's peak, where the lowest levels of actual expertise reside.
A 5-year-old is an expert in everything, even moments after asking for an ELI5. They don't have time to learn something new, as they're surrounded by shiny objects demanding their immediate attention. Can you guess how many times I've watched a billionaire former CEO and/or software developer fill this role in 2023?
Would you elect a 5-year-old to lead a country, company, invest billions, or dictate regulatory policy?
Sadly, Bing refuses to generate an "iconic portrait of a 5-year-old tech industry billionaire", due to Microsoft's gross incompetence. Fortunately, SDXL doesn't share Microsoft's incompetence.