030 - Decision Flags

Two massive Red Flags that often go unnoticed in conversation are when decision-makers use the words "believe" and "feel" to justify their decisions.

These explicitly state that a decision is so far removed from being logically driven that the individual sees fit to recognize this at the semantic level of word choice. It is normal for cognitive bias to influence every decision to some degree, and in a vast variety of combinations, but these red flags indicate a potency of bias well above any reasonable threshold.

A similar giant red flag that has become popular in the #AI industry is to say that something is a "Top Priority", indicating an alleged intention without offering anything of present or future substance. Such an alleged intention most often has no statistically significant correlation to reality in the present or future. It is nothing but empty words.

Part of the reason why the Cognitive Bias Detection System in our recent study was able to outperform the average human is because exact semantic word choice and structuring of natural language offer substantial insights into cognitive biases. The use of some words can indicate that an individual has built their decision on emotions to such a degree that they've disregarded any evidence to the contrary. Words like "believe" and "feel" can in this way signal the meaning that "my emotions are more important than the evidence".

If someone uses these words but also claims to be "logical", "data-driven", or a variety of other mutually exclusive semantic choices indicating their source of motivation, the case is likely much more severe.

Other researchers have suggested that the word "know" might be treated the same way, but "know" is both semantically more difficult to avoid in English, and it proposes a state rather than a source of motivation.

If you ever walk into a meeting that begins with the "Highest Paid Person's Opinion" (HIPPO), justified by words like "believe" or "feel", you may as well walk out of the room at that moment. Group-think driven by such red flags often takes a short drive off a tall cliff.